Abstract:
Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events, both spatially and inherently. Considering the country’s high dependence on agricultural products, to support the economy and a growing population, it is vital to gauge factors impacting the crop productivity. This study quantifies the change in temperature, precipitation and tropospheric ozone, overt the study region. Coupled with their respective effects, on productivity of three major crops; wheat, rice and cotton, within two of Pakistan’s largest provinces: Punjab and Sindh. Based on the primary and secondary data, multivariate regression analysis is conducted. Moreover, highly vulnerable areas to climate change have been identified under RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, till the end of this century. Results reveal a substantial increasing trend in temperature, whereas precipitation has high inter–annual variability. Tropospheric ozone concentrations; especially, in rice and cotton growing seasons observe rigorous upsurge. Regression results, based on fixed/random effects models, indicate that temperature above threshold values: 24.3°C, 33.0°C, 32.0°C for wheat, rice and cotton, respectively, negatively impacts productivity (statistically significant). Precipitation is statistically insignificant in explaining its impact on crop productivity. Tropospheric ozone adversely effects rice and cotton productivity, whereas its effect on wheat crop productivity is statistically insignificant. Overall, the region is heading towards temperature & pollution threshold exceedances at an alarming rate, which will impact the overall availability of suitable crop growing areas.
