Mapping the Climate Suitability of Potato (Solanum Tuberosum) using MaxEnt Modeling Approach in Pakistan

Abstract

Impacts of climate change are becoming vibrant and clear and one of the indirect impacts of climate change includes the subject of food security. Pakistan is included among one of the most vulnerable nations to climate change. In the 21st century Pakistan is already experiencing visible adverse impacts of climatic changes leading to food insecurity. Potato is a food security crop declared by FAO as it is rising as a big source against hunger. To assess the impact of climate change on potato crop in Pakistan, it is essential to analyze its distribution in future climate change scenarios. Maximum Entropy model has been used in this study to predict the spatial distribution of Potato in 2070 using two CMIP5 models for two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The data used for this study was obtained mainly from Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and was processed in the form of presence locations. R-Software was used in this research and there were 19 Bioclim variables incorporated in this research along with irrigation, soil type and elevation. Climate suitability maps were generated for current and future scenarios for two models and the results indicated drastic decrease in the suitable area for potato growth in RCP 8.5 and slight decrease in suitable area in RCP 4.5 with both the models. The Jackknife test predicted the most important contributors in current climate distribution of potato were isothermality, precipitation of wettest quarter and annual precipitation. In model 1 with RCP 4.5, the predictors were annual precipitation and precipitation of coldest quarter and with RCP 8.5 the variables were precipitation of wettest month and mean temperature of warmest quarter and In model 2 with RCP 4.5 important environmental factors included annual mean temperature and precipitation of coldest quarter and with RCP 8.5 the variables were precipitation of coldest quarter and irrigation. Key Words: Maxent, Food security, Potato, Representation Concentration Pathway