dc.description.abstract |
Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) such as hypertension and ischemic heart
diseases cause 35 to 40% of deaths every year in Pakistan. Several life style
factors such as smoking, dietary habits, lack of exercise, mental stress, body
habitus (i.e., BMI and waist), personal habits (i.e., dietary habits, sleep and
smoking) and clinical conditions (i.e., diabetes, dyslipidemia and hypertension)
have been shown to be strongly associated with the etiology of CVD.
Epidemiological studies in Pakistan have shown poor adherence of people
to healthy life style and lack of knowledge of adopting alternatively healthy
habits. There are well validated cardiovascular risk estimation tools that can
predict the probability of future cardiac events. The existing tools are based
on laboratory investigation of biochemical tests. There is no widely acceptable
tool available that predicts the CVD risk based on life style factors.
This research aims to develop alternative CVD risk estimation model based
on life style factors and physical attributes without conducting any clinical
test by using QRISK model as the gold standard. In this research, 160 subjects
participated in the case cross over design study to find out the risk
probability based on BMI (body mass index), waist circumference, physical
activities (i.e., stamina, strength, flexibility and posture), smoking, general
illnesses, dietary intake, stress and physical characteristics as predictors and
thereby indirectly predicting the future cardiovascular disease events risk.
Principal component analysis (PCA), bivariate correlations and Regression
analysis were used to assess the relationship among predictor variables and
cardiovascular risk score. Four predictors, i.e., Chronological age, waist circumference,
BMI (body mass index) and strength showed significant effect on
cardiovascular disease risk probability. Multiple-linear regression was applied
on features extracted through PCA to create a prediction model/equation of
QRISK Cardiovascular Probability. CVD risk can be measured up-to 72.9%
accuracy with the new model created in this research. Very few heart patients
were part of this study. Mostly people were healthy or at medium risk
of cardiovascular diseases. All participants were male, so a large scale study
can be conducted by including male and female to further prove the results. |
en_US |