Indian Intervention on River Neelum and Its Impacts on Downstream Flows and Energy Generation in Pakistan

Abstract

Water and energy are the prime movers of human life on the surface of earth. In the present era of technological development, Pakistan is facing acute shortage of water and electricity due to various reasons. Pakistan has only one basin (i.e. Indus Basin) which comprises six major rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Sutlej and Beas). Unfortunately, this single basin is also a transboundary basin and all its major rivers are being originating and flowing through conventional rival state of India. In 1960, a water sharing treaty which is called Indus Water Treaty (IWT) was signed between Pakistan and India which allocated three Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) to Pakistan for meeting the water and cheap energy demand of above 190 million population. After signing the IWT, it was believed that water’s confrontation between the states would be reduced. However after few decades, India started construction of different water storage and hydel power generation projects on Pakistan allocated rivers and accordingly established its control on Chenab and Jhelum Rivers. Subsequently in 2007, India started construction of a 330 MW Kishenganga Hydroelectric Project (KHEP) on Neelum River in Indian Held Kashmir (IHK), below which Pakistan has one under construction (Neelum - Jhelum Project) and five potential hydroelectric projects sites. Pakistan maintained that construction of KHEP is a violation of IWT, but India being the upper riparian did not consider the Pakistans’ concerns. Resultantly, to protect its right, and after exhausting all provisions of IWT, Pakistan instituted an international arbitral proceedings against India in 2010. In this regard, the Final Order came as of December 20, 2013 by the International Court of Arbitration (CoA). Pakistan’s economy depends upon the agriculture and industrial production, for which we need adequate availability of water and cheap electric energy. Presently, Pakistan is storing about 13% of its total available water and producing cheap hydel energy of about 11% of its total hydel potential. Besides Pakistan own issues that attributed toward shortage of water and electricity, U/s Indian water and power hegemony has further been pushing us toward frequent floods, droughts and in long-lasting darkness. xvi Keeping in view the provisions of IWT-1960 and decision of the Court of Arbitration (CoA) dated December 20, 2013 which was constituted in the matter of Kishenganaga - Neelum Jhelum Arbitration, current study encompasses the impacts of U/s Indian KHEP on D/s under construction and potential hydroelectric projects in Pakistan Administered Kashmir (PAK) by considering different scenarios and concludes that during operation of KHEP, Pakistan at all hydroelectric projects sites would face annual water shortage of about 12.1% to 87.6%, annual electricity reduction of about 9.3% to 62.2%. Further, due to reduced electricity only, Pakistan would bear annual financial loss of about Pak Rs. 2.1 to 37.5 billion. Besides, Pakistan would also face everlasting negative impacts on its environment. Although being the lower riparian, there is less to do with, however Pakistan can establish its water rights on Neelum River by constructing its potential hydroelectric projects, developing its land for agriculture, and then as per CoA’s decision (2013) may institute another international arbitration for reconsideration of minimum flows to be released by the India. Further to above, Pakistan must understand that construction of new water storages on all rivers is the dire need of the time to mitigate the effects of water stoppage & deficiency.