Abstract:
The present research is conducted to assess the land and snow cover changes occurring in River Jhelum and Chenab basin and to determine the impact of these changes on discharge of these rivers. ArcGIS 10.1 was used for the assessment of these changes and Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) to determine the impact on discharge. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was used for hypsometric analysis. In case of both river basins major shifting from forests to agricultural land was observed for years 2003, 2008 and 2013. Snow cover depletion curves were developed for both basins from which a decreasing trend was observed in snow cover extent for the winter as well as snowmelt period for years 2003,2008,2012,2013 and 2015. Snow depth monthly average values from 1998-2012 for both river basins was showing an increasing trend in case of January, December whereas no change was observed in case of August, September. Snow water equivalent (SWE) monthly average values from 1998-2012 for both river basins was showing an increasing trend from October to January. Hypsometric analysis indicated that both river basins have entered the mature stage. IFAS results showed that land and snow cover changes have an increasing impact on discharge. Identification of pattern in these changes will be helpful in understanding that how different factors like climatic variations, high population density are affecting the geological and cryosphere dynamics. As, flood is a major problem in Pakistan nowadays so keeping in view the effects of these changes can help to determine the discharge patterns which can be used to adopt mitigation measures.
