Abstract:
Examining the e cacy of natural disaster management readiness and response
activities is challenging due to the randomized behaviors and uncertainties
of natural disaster. These uncertainties are captured by stochastic
models quite well and thus have been widely used in disaster response activities
for evacuation operations, coordinating logistics support and accurate
relief shelter planning. The analysis of these stochastic models is carried out
using Monte Carlo simulations to judge the e ectiveness of natural disaster
management solutions. However, this approach uses the static estimators,
which generally rely on sampled number of events taken from the random
space. The safety-critical nature of such domain requires a more quanti able
analysis. In order to overcome this challenge, we propose to use statistical
model checking. The paper presents a framework for the formal statistical
analysis of relief supply location and distribution of natural disaster management
in PRISM. In PRISM model checker, we model and analyze a real-world
natural disaster management plan incorporating key factors i.e. demand of
medical supplies at hospitals, predestined routes from warehouses to hospitals,
capacity of warehouses and transportation plans ensuring successful
delivery of medical supplies to the hospitals.
