Abstract:
The transport sector is responsible for a significant amount of all energy-related emissions around the world. To curb the problem of climate change countries around the world are planning for the transformation of their transport sector, aiming to replace conventional fossil fuel-powered vehicles with electric-powered vehicles. Pakistan has recently developed its first National Electrical Vehicle Policy intending to achieve a 30% share of electric vehicles by the year 2030. This study develops a model to evaluate the techno-economic feasibility of incorporating a 30% battery-powered electric fleet in Pakistan’s existing transport and energy system. The energy mix of a country plays an important role in determining net economic impacts. The study investigates both cars and motorbikes for, capital costs, fossil fuel savings, additional generation requirements under different energy mix scenarios, and their cumulative influence on Pakistan’s economy. The results for the model show that Pakistan would require a mere 2% increase in its existing energy generation to accommodate a 30% electric vehicle fleet. The cost of additional generation energy for powering electric vehicles is significantly less than the cost of fossil fuel offset under the conceived energy mix scenarios. The results indicate that annual vehicle kilometers traveled is a key parameter in determining net economic impacts and that in the case of Pakistan importing electric vehicles to achieve its targets, electric bikes would have better long-term economic prospects than electric cars. The study builds a strong case for domestic electric vehicle manufacturing for developing countries like Pakistan.
