Development of Framework for Energy Wheeling (FEW) through Virtual Power Plants using Prophet Forecasting Model and Pub/Sub based Energy Distribution Model (EDM) /

Abstract

This study focus on policy implications and development of a framework for implementing energy wheeling (FEW) in Pakistan under the smart grid paradigm. Implementation of smart energy networks are imperative for energy transition in the country. These smart energy networks can manage energy demand and trade, electrification of rural areas and generate excess low cost renewable power. The policy recommendations addresses directly to the socio-economic condition of the region. For this purpose, Northern regions of Pakistan including Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA), Gilgit Baltistan (GB) and Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJK) has considered. Despite of having technological advancements in RE sector of Pakistan as seen in last few years, policies are required that align with international energy infrastructure protocols. The wheeling infrastructure developed in this study, has supported by Virtual Power Plants (VPPs). An intelligent pub/sub based energy distribution algorithm (EDM) has also put forward that manages the load-generation through energy trading. These VPPs suggested for this region have formed by coalition of Wind and Solar microgrids (MG). These MG’s have suggested owing to the potential of resource at the proposed site. The generation capacity of these MG have modelled in accordance to the load growth of the local population using Facebook Prophet forecasting model. For this purpose, load forecasting has done for the next twenty years. This study also attempts to verify and improve the renewable energy resource assessment done by Pakistan Metrological Department.