Techno-Economic Analysis of Wind Potential of Pakistan as Distributed Generation Source /

Abstract

Pakistan is a developing country with an ever-increasing energy demand. In the recent years Pakistan has been going through regional impact scale project like CPEC, which is bringing industrial and economic development in the country. Therefore, there is a large forecasted demand for energy in the country. However, Pakistan is still facing energy crisis mainly due to the inadequate electricity infrastructure in the country. The national transmission and distribution system efficiency has greatly reduced causing the shortfall in the country. Use of renewable based distributed generation is a promising option for Pakistan. Pakistan has a large wind resource available almost all around the country. This research study analyzed three different site locations in Gwadar, Quetta and Bahawalpur for 100 MW wind farms, in order to address the increasing demand by alternative source in these regions of the country as well as to reduce the load from the national transmission and distribution infrastructure. The study utilized system advisory model (SAM) for analysis and accommodated the latest financial parameter and real economic condition of the country for evaluating the feasibility of the wind farm. Additionally, the study provides the impact of various technical and economic variables, on the farm feasibility as well as provide an approach for optimum designing of wind farm in the country. A levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of 9.08 ¢/kWh, 11.0 ¢/kWh and 15.30 ¢/kWh were evaluated for Gwadar, Quetta and Baluchistan with a Payback time period of 4.2 years, 4.6 years and 6.5 years respectively. All three-site location provided a positive net present value (NPV), indicating the financial viability of the proposed sites. Additionally, energy production of 29,7859 MWh, 20,2515 MWh and 17,6848 MWh was calculated from Gwadar, Quetta and Bahawalpur site location with a net GHG reduction of 12,648 tCO2, 85,993 tCO2 and 75,145 tCO2 from the respective sites. The LCOE are highly comparable with other generation sources as well as they pave the path from clean development in the country and are forecasted to provide energy security and reliability in the country for future developments.