Abstract:
In past recent decade climate change is one the main concern of the world which requires proper incentives because water resources are depleting day after day thus hydrological assessment is very important. This study focus on the hydrological and climate change assessment of the Kunhar river catchment in addition to this land use classification of the Kunhar river basin is also performed in this research study. Arc GIS and HEC-HMS hydrological model is used for land use classification and hydrological assessment of the Kunhar catchment. HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model is calibrated for 1998-2003 and validation period is from 2004-2008.for performance of the HEC-HMS model results are checked by three performance indicators which are coefficient of determination (R²), Nash Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) which shows accuracy between observed data and model simulated data on daily basis. For climate change impact assessment climate projected data of MIROC 5 for emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 is extracted respectively and bias correction is performed using linear scanning bias correction technique after correction this datasets of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 is used as input in HEC-HMS model to evaluate the climate change impact on outflows of Kunhar river basin. For better understanding of the future runoffs the datasets are divided into three time slices 2025‘s (2011-2040), 2055‘s (2041-2070) and 2085‘s (2071-2100) up to end of 21st century and comparison of results with baseline dataset for finding out deviation in future outflows. Outcome of this research study can be used by different organizations of Pakistan for proper climate change adaptation strategies.
