Annual & Seasonal Streamflow Projections to Predict its Trends on Trans-boundary River Chenab under Climatic Scenarios on Control Points of Downstream State

Abstract

Streamflow prediction with pseudo-distributed approach in lumped format, according to multi-criteria parameter estimation generate future climatic flows at control points to make the mitigation and adaptation strategies under IPCC scenarios. Chenab River shared basin between India (upper-riparian) and Pakistan (lower-riparian), according to IWT (1960). Biased implementation of civil works lead to data sharing problem due to which lower riparian state faced huge losses under changing climate & mal-operations. This study evolves around future climatic trends of control points in Pakistan with accuracy projections in HEC-HMS. Rainfall datasets of TRMM (satellite) & APHRODITE (interpolated) are compared on daily basis to optimize HEC-HMS in a format of lumped case for each control point to rainfall-streamflow analysis using GIS based SCS-loss method and SCS-Unit Hydrograph transform method with multi-criteria parameter estimation. Calibration is performed on both datasets from 2005-2009 and validation from 2010-2013. TRMM being more efficient to project streamflow at Marala Headworks, Khanki Headworks & Qadirabad Barrage in validation stage due to Influence of upstream state control points on annual basis and TRMM and APHRODITE indicate strong relationship in Kharif season. Annual projection relates 3 efficiency constant of R², NSE and P-BISE, At Marala Headworks (R², NSE, PBIAS) as TRMM_V & APHRO_V results (0.74, 0.81, -6) & (0.62, 0.57, -13), Khanki Headworks validation results (0.81, -87) & (0.68, -62). Qadirabad Barrage validation results (R², PBIAS) as (0.74, -67) & (0.64, -44) respectively. Two seasons of Rabi and Kharif are (TRMM_V, APHRO_V) as (0.11, 0.05) & (-3, -52), ( 0.14, 0.01) & (-65, -142) and (0.16, 0.12) & (-13, -66) in Rabi season, ( 0.71, 0.78) & (-30, 9), ( 0.8, 0.78) & (-95, -36) and (0.58, 0.71) & (-92, -33) in Kharif season respectively. MIROC-5 predict change of (-265, -39, 13), (231, 806, 529) and (64, 611, 520) cumec on three control point of downstream state (Annual, Rabi, Kharif). Prediction with MIROC-5 climate model at Marala Headworks estimate required additional streamflow from Jhelum River of 2.94 cumec while Khanki Headworks and Qadirabad Barrage increase in streamflow from equitant design values.