Abstract:
The devastation in the recent events in Muzaffarabad Kashmir (2005) and Awaran Balochistan (2013) earthquake highlights the need for earthquake risk assessment (ERA). It is also suitable to develop the ERA framework in a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment and to develop more representative vulnerability assessment.
The Earthquake Risk Assessment (ERA) Framework developed by Khan (2010) at the University of Sheffield is applied in this study to account for a time dependent hazard assessment. The ERA Framework is based on a stochastic approach that utilizes readily available seismological information. Hence, it is suitable for use in developing countries. The seismic hazard assessment of the study is consistent with the local tectonic setting.
While carrying out the casualty assessment of the study area, the Kashmir earthquake (2005) was taken as a case study. The study reveals that 44% deaths in Kashmir earthquake were due to sudden and brittle failure of Adobe and Unreinforced brick masonry structures, which gave occupants no time to escape. 20% deaths could have been saved with efficient and timely search and rescue operation. 7% deaths were attributed to socio-economic vulnerability of the study region. 5% deaths could have been avoided had the structures designed to facilitate large void spaces after collapse. Further 5% fatalities in Kashmir earthquake resulted in houses located directly on active fault lines.
Total fatalities expected are 20904 and total injuries 35420 for 50 years. The expected average fatalities per annum are 418 and expected average injuries per annum 708.
