Evacuation Decision Making and Behavior in Flood-Prone Rural Areas: A Case Study of Dera Ismail Khan

Abstract

Climate change has posed an increasing threat of extreme events. Evacuation is considered an important process for safeguarding lives in an emergency. It is essential to identify the factors associated with evacuation decision-making. Socioeconomic conditions and risk perceptions can directly or indirectly influence the evacuation decision. This research explores the evacuation dynamics in flood- prone rural areas along the Indus River. Risk perception is quantified using well- established indicators. Yamane sampling method was used, and 500 samples were collected using household questionnaires from high flood risk and past affected rural areas along the river. Pearson’s correlation technique was used to identify the relationship between flood risk perception indicators and the likelihood of evacuation. A binary logistic regression test was developed to identify socioeconomic factors influencing evacuation. Results show that people who stayed near the rivers had a lower risk perception. However, fear was high among all respondents. Age and hazard proximity was found to be influencing the willingness to evacuate. The results imply an urgent need to launch awareness campaigns in settlements near the river.