Integrative Decision-making Framework for Techn-oeconomic Planning and Sustainability Assessment of Renewable Dominated Standalone and Grid-connected Hybrid Microgrids Infrastructure at Provincial Scale of Pakistan /

Abstract

Renewable energy is considered a viable solution for addressing the energy crisis and environmental issues sustainably. However, instead of the huge potential available of renewable energy resources in the under-study region, their potential undermining imposes a utilization of traditional energy resources, which poses a lot of sustainability and economic challenges. Focusing on almost 100% renewable fraction and solving the sustainable energy access issues of almost 0.439091 million energy consumers, this study proposes an integrative decision-making framework to carry technoeconomic-environmental

sustainability and optimal sizing of renewable dominated hybrid autonomous standalone and grid-connected microgrids for 19 independent sites of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with the aims of minimizing the Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and life cycle cost (LCC) through examination of available renewable potential and regional forecasted load. The proposed research is carried out in four folds. In the first fold, techno-economic planning and optimization are performed for standalone systems, then with the aims of recovering the excess energy similar procedure is performed for grid-connected configurations. In the second fold, comparative analysis between standalone and grid-connected configurations is presented. In the third fold, environmental analysis is performed, and forest absorbing carbon analysis is evaluated to absorb the same GHG emissions. While, in the fourth fold, sensitivity analyses are performed. Optimization results showed that from all discussed configurations, for standalone systems, the PV system coupled with hydro provides the most feasible results for overall configuration with average LCOE from 0.0359 $/kWh to 0.1185 $/kWh. Due to having a significant potential for hydel power, the Northern zone remains the most feasible zone for investing in standalone electrification experiencing an average LCOE of 0.1026 $/kWh. From grid-connected, Southern and Northwest Zones, PV coupled with wind energy systems as a hybrid solution proved to be most effective configurations with least LCOE ranging from 0.02589 $/kWh to 0.02763 $/kWh. From Northern Zone, all the hydel based configurations showed a substantial revenue. From environmental analysis, Kohat (MG-2) experienced the highest carbon emission i.e., 45,128 tonnes, thus require a large forest area i.e., 4106.66 hectares to absorb the same emissions. In contrast, an only PV or combination of PV and hydro offered a least almost zero tonnes of carbon emissions i.e., 4304.72 tonnes and 4506.3 tonnes. Developed integrated decision-making and sustainability assessment model can provide a reference and pathway toward SDGs as well as to government and private investors for investment decision making and policy optimization.