Assessment of Wind Resource Potential and Power Production for Selected Sites in Pakistan

Abstract

In the first part of this study, correlation between MERRA-2 reanalysis wind data and ground data is assessed for 12 selected locations. The correlation coefficient ranges from 0.17 to 0.75 among the sites. Sites with higher average wind speeds show comparatively stronger correlation. Besides, site specific factors are also investigated. In the second part, wind energy potential at same 12 locations across Pakistan is evaluated for the first time using 10-min interval ground observed data. The diurnal, monthly and annual means for the sites are calculated and wind speed variance is observed utilizing wind data recorded at four altitude levels (20m, 40m, 60m and 80m), and wind speed calculated at further two levels (10m and 50m). Wind roses were developed for 50m and 80m wind data. The data is fitted to the Weibull distribution, which is widely accepted method for wind frequency distribution. Most probable wind speeds, wind speeds carrying maximum energy and wind power densities for all the locations are calculated for 50m and 80 height wind data. Wind power density is calculated by 2 methods, using wind speed and Weibull distribution analysis, both producing comparable results. Significant variation of wind power density is observed along the height. High values for average wind power density are calculated for four locations, namely Sujawal (355.6 W/m2), Sanghar (312.9 W/m2), Tando Ghulam Ali (288.2 W/m2) and Umerkot (252.8 W/m2). Finally, Wind farm feasibility studies are developed for the four selected sites utilizing RETScreen Clean Energy Management Software and energy outputs and capacity factors are estimated. It was also found that wind power projects developed under the assumed scenarios will be financially viable and will result in considerable reduction of GHG emissions. Furthermore, 8 scenarios were developed and modeled on the tool to study the impact of policy changes on the wind power sector of Pakistan.