Abstract:
Floods are one of the most widely recognized risks on the planet and cause loss of lives,
job and property annihilation. The extreme events that affect the environment the most,
they play a vital role for investigating climate. Pakistan has been a target to extreme
floods and dry spells. It has become a prompt need to investigate such hazards as it will
help to reduce the consequences of extreme events. As intense precipitation is associated
with floods, so for this investigation extreme precipitation has been statistically analysed
to forecast the floods. This work encapsulated regional frequency analysis (RFA)
using the Peak Monsoon Rainfall Totals (July and August) variable on 10 stations of
Punjab. RFA based L-moments were applied on 10 stations situated in Punjab, Pakistan.
According to the discordancy measure demonstrates that the cluster of 10 stations
does not contain any discordant sites. The heterogeneity measure (H) provided that the
region of 10 stations as a whole is heterogeneous therefore, it is divided into two regions
using time series plots. Note that cluster analysis using available site characteristics
has not provided desirable homogeneous regions. L-moment ratio diagram and Z distribution
statistic results indicated that GLO distribution and GEV distribution are the
best fit distributions for Region 1 (consisting of seven stations namely Bahawalnagar,
Faisalabad, Jhelum, Lahore, Sialkot, Sargodha and Mianwali) and Region 2 (consisting
of three sites namely Bahawalpur, Khanpur and Multan) respectively. Regional and
as well as at-site quantiles for various return periods from 1 to 100 years have been
calculated.
