Abstract:
Land use and climate variation are prominent factors that influence the global energy and water cycle. Hydrological disturbances a reflection is of increasing runoff rate, more intense and frequent floods, decreasing groundwater recharge, elevated levels of sediments, and an increase in the concentration of nutrients in both streams and shallow groundwater. To analyze the climate change effect, Mann-Kendal and Pettit tests were performed to evaluate the trend and change points of hydroclimatic parameters for the period 1991-2019. Whereas supervised classification of satellite imaginaries was evaluated for land use and land cover. Land use and land cover changes were observed through the satellite dataset. Semi distributed hydrological model (SWAT) was incorporated to observe the topography, weather, land use, and geology characteristic of the Haro River watershed. Calibration and validation periods of NSE (0.76 and 0.77), R2 (0.78 and 0.76), and PBIAS (6.1 and 6.1) show a very good relationship. Based on SWAT model performance, it can be employed to support management strategies in semi-dry settings when calibrated properly. The uncertainties that impact climate regimes were addressed by bias correction in climate change scenarios and global circulation models (GCMs). The hydrological modeling for the future projection i-e 21st century for stream flow simulation was carried out by Arc SWAT for the basin, to examine changes under the two RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climatic scenarios. The RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios both forecast an increase in the basin's mean annual flow. The study will assist the authority to manage the risk according to the predicted scenarios and further contribute to the sustainable planning and management related to the Haro river basin.
