Fuel for Economic Growth: Forecasting the Energy Mix of Pakistan using TIMES /

Abstract

Pakistan is blessed with an abundant stock of indigenous energy resources. Despite the availability of these sources, there is a widening gap between supply and demand. The following research work presents a quantitative and analytical study on the current energy situation of Pakistan, along with a methodology to reduce the gap. The work also emphasizes on the urge for a need to use energy models in order to forecast an increase in demand. Using TIMES, a model which allows the input of several variables, enables to predict and optimize the energy mix, in order to forecast the most beneficial solutions to create a more extensive depiction of the country's existing energy system under varying scenarios and policies. This methodology helps in developing an applicable reference energy system, thereby solving for the least cost energy solution to create a more comprehensive picture of the country's energy system under varying policies and possibilities. The results will portray future demand projections along with strategies necessary to meet growing demand.