Abstract:
Ground motion prediction equations is cornerstone of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment. A big pool of GMPEs is available nowadays for active crustal and subduction zone categories which are derived on dataset of different regions including database of Middle East, Europe (non- NGA) and NGA WEST 2 database. For countries like Pakistan which do not have local GMPEs, selection of GMPE is difficult and is merely based on hit and trial. Comparative analysis of latest set of GMPEs for these respective categories on seismic hazard of Pakistan is unknown. In this study Probabilistic Seismic Hazard analysis conducted on urban centers (Gwadar and Quetta) of Baluchistan province, a sample from Pakistan given their potential to become economic hubs as rapid infrastructure development is expected in the region. The analysis is based on area source approach along with the modelling of major active crustal faults of the region. Three set of GMPEs were selected where first set consists of GMPEs developed by NGA WEST 2, second set consist of non-NGA based GMPEs while third set is a hybrid set in which NGA WEST 2 and non-NGA based GMPEs are used together. Logic tree method is employed in this work to take into consideration the epistemic uncertainty in different GMPEs for each tectonic zone and in the seismic source models as well. For 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (return period 475 and 2475 years respectively), updated hazard maps for PGA and spectral acceleration for structural period of 0.1 sec, 0.2 sec, and 1 sec are created. These results can be effectively used to reduce seismic risk, to develop effective disaster mitigation, and management strategies
