RISK ANALYSIS OF BRIDGE CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS IN PAKISTAN

Abstract

Construction process is inherently prone to risks. Risk management is an essential and integral part of project management in construction projects. The remedy to manage construction project risks effectively lies in establishing a systematic risk management approach. Risk analysis is one of the core parts of the risk management, enables professionals to quantify and analyze risks, which may pose potential threats to project performance in terms of cost, quality, safety and time. This research attempts to identify and analyze risks associated with bridge construction projects in Pakistan during construction phase. A questionnaire survey was conducted to collect data. Risks affecting bridge construction projects performance were identified through interviews with engineers and managers involved with various bridge projects. Cost and schedule impacts of project risks were validated by conducting a case study using Monte Carlo simulation. The key findings indicate that financial and economic risks are a major factor in affecting cost and time objectives of project. The highest ranked factor identified is “unavailability of funds” with a relative importance index greater than 85. The results of Monte Carlo simulation were compared to the actual completion time and cost of activities on the case-study project. In all cases of this comparison, the actual completion date and cost fell within the predicted distribution by Monte Carlo simulation.The work provided risk analysis guidelines which comprised of a step by step process of performing a risk analysis on bridge construction projects. Results of this work can be very useful for planning and scheduling engineers, cost-control managers and project managers to evaluate particular risks on their projects and to avoid delays and cost overrun in any culture.