Abstract:
Accurate estimation of effort, time and resources for successful completion of a project is a challenging task for project managers. Several techniques are commonly practiced around the globe for project cost estimation based on the project’s scope, type, and availability of resources. Also, different agencies use different techniques for estimating project contingency reserves and some of the techniques explicitly consider project duration and cost. Unfortunately Pakistan’s construction industry continues to use traditional methodologies for preparation of project cost estimates and contingency reserves. There is lack of general awareness about modern project cost estimation techniques and project cost estimates are prepared considering the current market rate of different construction item and a fix percentage of the project cost is set aside to cater for future risks to the projects. Even using regularly published departmental schedule of rates (e.g. MES, PWD, NHA) most of the projects suffer from cost and duration issues. Present study developed an enhanced framework for project cost estimation and design of rational contingency reserves. The proposed framework can predict present and future cost scenarios for both building and road projects with minimum risk. The proposed framework used quantitative as well as probabilistic techniques duly incorporating past trends and actual field conditions for project cost estimation. Using data from completed projects, model validation revealed that developed model has the ability to predict precise future project cost. Using MES and PWD Schedule of Rates, Punjab finance department Market Rates System (MRS) and, NHA composite rates, a detailed comparison between project costs estimates was carried out. It was revealed that for building projects PWD Schedule of Rates and Punjab finance department MRS provides reliable cost estimates. For highway projects NHA’s composite rates are more reliable and may be used for highway project cost estimation. The framework developed in this thesis can be used by highway as well as construction agencies for reliable estimation of future project cost and design of realistic project contingency reserves irrespective of project duration.
