“ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE; BUILDING RESISTANT LIVELIHOOD FOR THE VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES IN HAZARA DIVISION OF KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA (KPK), PAKISTAN”

Abstract

According to IPCC (2018) climate change refers to ‘any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or due to human activity’. The anthropogenic activity is mainly responsible for the abrupt changes in the climate and has an impact on social, biological and geophysical systems globally. Developed countries have recourses and competencies required to mitigate and adapt to climate change that developing countries lack. Developing countries like Pakistan have become extremely vulnerable to climate related disasters over the past few decades. This is due to reasons that Pakistan has an agrarian economy, and any variations in the climate have higher impact on agriculture products, and livelihood of people, which also impacts the overall economic productivity. This research aims to study how the changing climate interacts with livelihood in Pakistan. The region that research focuses on is Hazara Division, situated in KPK in Pakistan. In particular, the research aims to study the impact of flash and seasonal flooding on livelihood in vulnerable communities in Hazara Division in the districts; Torghar, Kohistan, Mansehra, Abbottabad, and Haripur. The research question that is asked is ‘Do flash and seasonal flooding adversely impact the livelihood of vulnerable communities in Hazara division?’ Data collection methodology includes collecting data from head of 500 households from the mentioned districts, by distributing semi-structed survey questioners. Variables are developed on the basis of questions from the questioner. The dependent variables being livelihood, economic status, and poverty, and independent variables being flood index, socio-demographic characteristics, institutional support, household vulnerability, livestock, and crop index. Cross Tabulation and Logistical Regression is applied to study the relationship between dependent and independent variables. The results show that there is a relationship between the independent variables (flood, socio-demographic characteristic, institutional support, household vulnerability, livestock, and crop index) and dependent variables (livelihood, economic status, and poverty). Main findings from the results show that 1-unit increase in floods leads to 2.383 and 4.584 units decrease in livelihood and economic status, while 4.779 units increase in poverty level of households in districts of Hazara division. Lack of institutional support is negatively related to livelihood, economic status, while positively related to poverty. 1 unit decrease in Institutional support leads to 1.201 units decrease in livelihood, 0.221 decrease in economic status, and 0.566 units increase in poverty for households in Hazara Division. Livestock is positively related to livelihood and economic status and negatively related to poverty level for households. 1-unit increase in Livestock, livelihood increases by 2.023, economic status increases by 4.506 and poverty decreases by 3.112 units. Crops are positively related to livelihood and economic status and negatively related to poverty. 1-unit increase in crops leads to 5.080 units increase in livelihood, 1.214 units increase in economic status and 0.428 units decrease in poverty levels for households in Hazara division. Implications for policy includes that livelihood diversification efforts should take place, including skill and vocational training. Efforts should be made in strengthening the institutions for adaptation to climate change, and to provide strong institutional support to communities vulnerable to climate change.