THE DETERMINANT OF CEREAL YIELD & AGRICULTURAL GROWTH IN HIGHLY POPULATED DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Abstract

This study determines the role of agricultural inputs in cereal yield improvements and its impact on the economic growth and development process of highly populated developing countries. This study used regression results of six developing countries chosen from six different regions of the world on the basis of their population. The results depicted major role of fertilizer, improved seeds and provision of adequate amount of water in boosting yield. The core variables of the study are fresh water and fertilizer, the study constructed that both these core variables play an important role in the agricultural yield model which in extension is linked with the overall growth of the economy. In addition to core variables, control variables are also used in the agricultural yield model. The purpose of adding control variables in the model is to control their possible influence on the model. In economic growth model, macroeconomic variables are regressed with the lag of cereal yield and total fertility rate. Instrumental variable helped to observe the shocks in cereal yield through fertilizer channel which may highlight in GDP for the existing time period and with a lag time period. In the end, the study further tests for observed links between agricultural yields and economic growth which provide an evidence that there is a strong relationship between them, that boost economy upwards