EXPLORING PAKISTAN’S INTERPROVINCIAL WATER CONFLICTS AS INFLUENCED BY WATER APPORTIONMENT ACCORD 1991

Abstract

Pakistan has radically shifted from a water-abundant country to a water-stressed country over the last four decades. The water crisis in Pakistan is mainly triggered by brisk population growth, unplanned urbanization, climate change, poor water management, poor water-sector governance, and lack of infrastructure. The growing demand for water has triggered a race for its exploitation and possession in the provinces which have aggravated provincial level internal frictions. To resolve the emerging conflicts among the provinces and build consensus on water distribution and management, the Government of Pakistan set forth a Water Apportionment Accord (WAA) in 1991 but it did not bring the desired results, and the conflict over water brewed increasingly. With this backdrop, this study is an attempt to explore Pakistan’s interprovincial water conflicts as influenced by WAA-1991 with the focus to determine changes in the agricultural and surface water covers in the provinces during the pre- and postWAA regime. However, opinions of the water-sector stakeholders are also explored about the flaws in the accord and their views on conflict resolution are determined. This study used mixed-methods research and followed a tailored approach to conduct multidisciplinary research which included GIS Remote Sensing and a stakeholder survey. Using purposive sampling technique, 18 stakeholders from all the major water-sector institutions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Punjab, and Sindh provinces were interviewed. The Remote Sensing and GIS results indicate that during the past 30 years, the overall agricultural cover (Rabi and Kharif seasons) in KP province has increased by 28% and in Punjab province by 35%, whereas it has decreased in the Sindh province by 9% respectively. Similarly, the surface water cover has decreased significantly in all three provinces i.e., KP = 17%; Punjab = 36%; and Sindh = 32%. The increase in the agricultural cover suggests that farming communities have been extracting ground water to fulfill their water needs and sustain their agriculture along with using hybrid seeds and utilizing agricultural extension services. At the same time, there are concerns over its relevance for depleting underground water amidst other challenges. Moreover, the analysis of the stakeholder survey implies that there are interprovincial water conflicts which are influenced by the technical flaws in the WAA-1991. Based on findings, this study also lays recommendations to resolve interprovincial conflicts.