An Analysis of Water Supply and Demand in Lower Bari Doab Canal under different Scenarios: An Integration of WEAP and Nash Bargaining Solution

Abstract

Management and allocation of water resources has turned out to be more challenging than before due to increase in population. Increase in water demand due to rapid surge in population has also resulted in water scarcity issues in Pakistan. The Lower Bari Doab Canal region in Punjab, Pakistan is classified as a semi-arid area due to its climatic conditions. The expansion of urban developments and rapid population growth has resulted in the shortage of water supply in the region. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of future water demands on the Lower Bari Doab water resources in year 2035. In order to find the best combination of scenarios that met the future water demands, a scenario-based modeling was used in conjunction with Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) software. The baseline scenario was based on the year 2015 and for each scenario, the water resources implications were compared with that baseline scenario. The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) modeling was used in this research to evaluate the complex water resource system and to inspect supply and demand management policies related to different sectors in Lower Bari Doab Canal Area. To address gap between water supply and demand, Nash Bargaining Solution (interval linear programming) was used for better allocation of water resources. Results showed that the supply demand gap continues to increase under the current condition. More than 55.847 BCM of additional water is needed by year 2035 to satisfy the water demands. The unmet water demand also varies as per proposed scenarios. The high agriculture scenario shows that the demand for agriculture can increase up to 90.77% by the year 2035. High population and high industry scenarios show that the unmet demand for these sites can increase up to 14.28% and 66.66% respectively. A careful control of the population growth rate is necessary in future to control the growing water demands. In order to address the supply-demand gap, water allocation under different scenarios was done using Nash Bargaining Solution. This approach helps in analyzing future water demand along with better and more efficient addressing of water resources to address the supply and demand gap.