CLIMATE CHANGE INDUCED GLACIAL LACK OUTBURST FLOODS IN HUNZA VALLEY OF PAKISTAN: AN ASSESSMENT OF FARMING COMMUNITY PERCEPTION AND ADAPTATION

Abstract

Climate change is emerging as a serious problem-posing challenge on all levels through triggering natural variabilities and changes in weather patterns across the globe. One of climate change impacts is visible in melting glaciers, e.g., mountainous glaciers in an unprecedented manner. Glacial changes result in various catastrophic natural events e.g., Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) that are posing threats to life, property, and infrastructures of downstream settlements. In the Gilgit-Baltistan region of Pakistan, GLOFs are frequently occurring due to glacier advancements and surges. In the year 2018, a potential glacier lake was formed owing to the surge of the Shishper glacier in the Hunza valley which has increased the vulnerability of mountainous communities to GLOFs hazards with low adaptive measures. With this backdrop, this research endeavor was aimed to study the climate change-induced GLOFs of the Shisper glacier in the Hunza valley of Pakistan. The study was determined to explore the livelihood activities of mountainous communities; their awareness and perceptions towards climate change and their adaptation mechanism to deal with GLOFs. By using quantitative research methodology, a total of 180 respondents from the Burusho farming community were interviewed in the Hassanabad and Sultanabad villages of Hunza valley. Results indicated that an overwhelming number of the respondents were highly aware of climate changes in the study area. They had clear perceptions about changes in temperature, rainfall and snow patterns, and GLOFs that had occurred over the last twenty years. Further, the chi-square results revealed that the difference in awareness of climate change across gender was not significant (χ2 = 3.066, df = 2, P = 0.3823), while highly significant results were observed across the age groups (χ2 = 37.035, df = 9, P = 0.000) and level of education (χ2 = 171.341, df = 18, P = 0.000). It was found that because of the devastating impacts of climate change and recent GLOFs, respondents were using indigenous methods to prevent the damages caused by the GLOFs. Nevertheless, the government and some NGOs had also undertaken some measures by erecting protective walls along the riverbanks and installation of early warning system in the area to prevent damage to life in case of future outbursts. However, this study suggests that there is a dire need to assist mountainous communities through maximum support and interventions to enhance the resilience of communities towards future GLOFs threats, and the need to increase the adaptive capacity of people through strengthening their socio-economic conditions.