Modeling, Simulation, and Forecasting of Wind Power Plants in Pakistan using Agent-Based Approach

Abstract

National economy and growth relies heavily on electricity but unfortunately, rapid growth and urbanization with ever-growing inhabitants has caused severe energy crisis in Pakistan. Major portion of electricity generation in Pakistan is carried out using fossil fuels regardless of the fact that it is a country with abundant renewable resources. Electricity generation projects that use renewable energy resources have been established in Pakistan and many are under construction to overcome energy crisis in country. In order to meet long-term targets for a sustainable, efficient, affordable and low carbon energy system, a detailed descriptive study of the dynamics of energy generation and consumption at a country scale is inevitably necessary. We proposed modeling and simulation of wind power plant in Pakistan to forecast energy generation in a cost effective and productive manner. We develop a dynamic model of wind power plant and simulate short term and long-term energy generation profiles. Agent based approach is used to implement and simulate wind power plant. Agent based modeling focuses on the individual active components of the system. In agent-based simulation, active entities of wind power plant, known as agents, are identified and their behavior is defined. These entities include Turbine’s rotor, Drive Train, Generator and Anemometer. Our model is validated on Nordex N100/2500 turbine specification and the historical generation of wind farm at Gharo, Sindh. A correctly implemented and validated power plant model can be (re)used as a component agent in an integrated Power Generation and Consumption framework and thus aid in realistic analysis of the future dynamics of electricity demand and supply