An Insight into Future Hydrology of Kabul River Basin: Nowshera Flood Perspective

Abstract

Recent climate change impacts have been surfacing more frequently around the world, and under-developed countries like Pakistan are at increasingly worsening exposure to climate change-triggered hydrometeorological extremes. There has been an increased frequency of flooding events in most of the rivers including Kabul River. This study intends to investigate the hydrology of a periodically flooding region Kabul River Basin (KRB) during the recent past (2003-2022) and future (2023-2100) with the intention to contribute towards flood management in Nowshera region. The observed streamflow data of Kabul River at Nowshera and data of climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) obtained from ERA5-Land for 2003-2022 were given as input to calibrate and validate HBV light hydrological software. Later, using the calibrated model, future simulations of streamflow were simulated on HBV light by giving climate projections of precipitation and temperature as input. The results indicate a much-increased frequency in the occurrence of mega and large floods in Kabul River in the near and far future, requiring a more elevated level of flood monitoring setup in the region. The findings of the study might be beneficial for water resources managers, development planners, and disaster management authorities in the KRB, especially in Nowshera that is highly susceptible to flooding in Kabul River.