Abstract:
Electricity usage planning is a main concern for electricity stakeholders in a country.
The exhaustible resources are not enough to address energy demand in our country. It
comes with varied problems such as price, environmental hazards and availability of
resources. Renewable energy resources, mainly hydropower energy is an ideal solution
to energy deficiency in Pakistan. However, to meet the compelling demand for
electricity and to deal with different uncertainties involved in this process,
development of sustainable policies through proper planning is becoming increasingly
challenging.
To overcome the above-mentioned problems, we propose to study electricity
generation trend of Tarbela Power Plant. Historical data of last 5 years on a daily
resolution of generation is used to develop regression models and predict energy
generation. This study shall help in analysis of future supply of electricity produced by
the Powerhouse.
A prediction-based model for electricity production will be useful in forecasting future
energy generation and therefore will play a significant role in electric energy planning.
It will allow stakeholders to visualize operational excellence of the Plant and
incorporate many influencing factors such as decision making on tariffs, policy
regulations, investments, available resources and the environmental factors in the
country. Once the proposed model is validated using historical data, it will be
accredited as a decision support tool for planning future generation needs
