TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN PAKISTAN EDUCATION MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEM USING DATA MINING TECHNIQUE

Abstract

The educational planners need comprehensive, reliable, up-to-date, and timely data for decision making purposes, related to planning, monitoring, evaluation, and review of education system. Such education related data collection and representation occurs at all levels, from grass root level to higher education level. To facilitate policy makers, educational planners and managers at all administrative levels in policy formulation and management of education system, a computerized educational management information system (EMIS) was established in Pakistan. EMIS functioning at federal level is called National Educational Management Information System (NEMIS). NEMIS has the responsibility of consolidation of national education data and generates useful information to cater needs of policy planners and decision makers. The NEMIS strive to improve the existing decision making system by adopting some of the modern trends in information analysis and using suitable technologies available for this purpose. However, currently NEMIS lacks the capacity to utilize the technologies which are available for analysis and decision making. This study is aimed to investigate the existing shortcomings faced by Policy and Decision Makers of EMIS and to prepare an automated tool for policy makers for enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of EMIS. In this study, the data mining concepts and techniques i.e. Time Series Analysis and forecasting will be applied on the existing EMIS data. This will assist education managers to diagnose the issues and problems in the education system and to evolve remedial measures for improvement of the education system.