Abstract:
Nature can’t be controlled but it is possible to map the forest fire risk index which can minimize the frequency of fire. Wildfire is one of the key of environmental hazards. The wildfire poses huge threat to human lives, health, economy, and biodiversity. In this study the MODIS active fire events data were used from 2014-2020 for temporal analysis along with computing the Fire Risk Index (FRI) and identifying the risk zone in Azad Jammu Kashmir (AJK), Pakistan. AJK is mostly mountainous area, only the southern part very low altitude. Eight factors including (Land cover, elevation, slope, aspect, temperature, relative humidity, proximity to road and settlement) were used for the FRI. After assigning the different weight to all the responsible factors make FRI map for study area. It noticed that the partially flat areas with less slope and very low relative humidity were vulnerable for fire events with raking high to very high. Moreover, high altitude areas having better RH causing risk ratings from low to very low. Second main reason is dry weather, as RH is low due to less precipitation. The southern part of AJK were highly vulnerable high risk level, while the northern part of AJK were low to very low in risk class map. The frequency of fires was higher during the years of 2016 and 2018, most of the fires (51%) occurring during the pre-monsoon season (May–June) when the weather is hotter and drier, also the ground data is analyzed the maximum fire events in these months. Furthermore, validation was carried out by overlaying the MODIS data and available ground data from Wildlife & Fisheries Department of AJK. The validation results showed 68% fire events of ground data occurred in High risk class and 13% in in moderate class, when MODIS active fire events overlaid, 56% in high and 23% in moderate risk class.
