Abstract:
Seismic Hazard Assessment (SHA) is most fundamental part of earthquake risk
mitigation and management. Pakistan has quite a complex Seismo tectonic
environment, with Arabian, Eurasian, and Indian plates colliding at different
rates. In this research, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and deaggregation
approach for Baluchistan has been performed using area source model. For model
development, an earthquake catalogue has been updated by compiling the events
from national and international databases from year 1900 to 2020. For surface
level hazard assessment, ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are
appropriately used. To cope with uncertainty in Equations, the Logic Tree
Approach is also used. Surface hazard maps are developed for Peak ground
acceleration at 2%, 5%, 10%, 25% and. 69% probability of exceedance in 50
years. The Uniform. Hazard spectra (UHS) has been generated for major cities of
Baluchistan. Surface level Uniform hazard spectra (UHS) graphs for Quetta and
Gawadar city are developed at 69% 10% and 2% probability of exceedance which
is SLE, DBE and MCE Level respectively. Hazard Deaggregation Analysis for
Quetta is also carried out to estimate the percentage of hazard contribution of all
the seismic source (faults, tectonic plates) to the city. Results of Deaggregation
Analysis gives better understanding of seismic risk to cities. Surface Hazard PGA
Maps, uniform hazard spectra (UHS) and hazard deaggregation Analysis have
many practical applications in structural designing and performance evaluation of
existing structures. These curves and maps would help for disaster risk mitigation
and management policies.
