Modeling and Analysis of Long-term Energy Scenarios Using LEAP Model

Abstract

The energy sector is critical for nation building, particularly in terms of economic development. The current installed capacity of electric power in Pakistan is roughly 17,000 MW, but peak demand is 22,000 MW, with an average shortage of 5,000 MW. The objective of study is to forecast energy consumption of various resources of energy, GHG emissions from these sources and finding the impact of biomass energy on current energy generation using LEAP model. According to the findings, total demand from all sources is around 98.10 million Tons of Oil Equivalent (TOE), and it is growing at an alarming rate of 2.93% each year. The most significant sources of GHG emissions are fossil fuels. With an annual increase of 2.94%, current energy use produces around 240.35 million tons of CO2 equivalent at 100-Year Global Warming Potential (GWP). Biomass is one of the best renewable energy sources that may be used to meet energy demand while also helping to reduce pollution. The biomass of wheat, maize, sugarcane, and tobacco was estimated using spectral indices and biophysical properties of the crops, yielding a total of 1,651,043 tons, and DBSI was used to identify bare land in the area during the boom green period of each crop. Estimates of biomass energy showed that 25% of the total biomass in the study area could generate 489 MW of electricity, which could have a significant influence on energy demand generation and avoid the environmental pollution in terms of negligible GHG emissions. The use of LiDAR and drone imagery can improve classification and biomass calculation. Research into municipal and animal waste as well as advanced biomass energy production can show a path to long-term energy production.