COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF PRE AND POST-EARTHQUAKE ON LAND USE LAND COVER AND ITS IMPACT ON URBAN HEAT ISLAND IN MUZAFFARABAD CITY

Abstract

On October 8, 2005, an earthquake of magnitude 7.6 magnitude struck the Kashmir region of Pakistan causing widespread damage to buildings and infrastructure and environmental components. Most of the physical infrastructure was damaged. The state rehabilitates and reconstructs most of its physical infrastructure. Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change analysis assists decision-makers to ensure sustainable development and to understand the dynamics of our changing environment. During the past 17 years the study area has undergone many LULC changes due to rapid urban growth, poorly planned infrastructural development, and a devastating earthquake event. This study was proposed to detect LULC changes and to investigate the urban heat island in the study area. Urban heat island (UHI) effect, the side effect of rapid urbanization, has become an obstacle to the further healthy development of the city. Understanding its relationships with impact factors is vital to provide useful information for climate adaptation urban planning strategies. Muzaffarabad is a mountainous city and hit by and devastating earthquake in 2005, in result most of the infrastructure was damaged. In process of rehabilitation and reconstruction many of the buildings were reestablished but many of people from suburbs shift to the city, which increases in built-up area in city. Supervised classification was done observe land use land cover maps and OLS and GWR are run to check the urban heat island effect in city. 24% increase was observed in built-up, and 15% decrease in vegetation. GWR show better performance than OLS as its AICc values are lower than OLS AICc values.