Abstract:
In Pakistan, there is shortage of electricity generation. As per Pakistan National
Transmission & Dispatch Company (NTDC); Pakistan will be able to meet the
projected demand of peak hours in 2019. In Pakistan, the major consumer class is
domestic which constitutes approximately more than 40% of the electricity sale
share, therefore the importance of forecasted domestic electricity demand profiles
cannot be denied. The forecasting of household's profiles is not only an important
factor for the establishment of sustainable energy systems but also helps in the
development of demand-side management policies, future energy generation mix,
planning of electricity transmission and distribution network and end-user tariff
designs. Due to lack of efficient electricity infrastructure in Pakistan, domestic
electricity consumption is not being accurately monitored, thus we are unable to
predict our future domestic electricity demands and always faces electricity shortage
of 10 to 12 hours in summer peak season. Smart Grid Infrastructure deployment and
Home Energy Management Solutions currently available are very expensive and
require a lot of long-term planning for a developing country like Pakistan. To
forecast the household’s electricity load profiles, we propose a bottom-up agentbased modeling and simulation framework. Our approach provides households per
minute electricity consumption by using the behavioral modeling of electrical
appliances uses and suitable for replicating at real-world urban infrastructure
scenarios. The proposed ABMS framework will support in: (i) Estimation of the
future energy demands; (ii) Analysis of the complex dynamic behavior of the
population; (iii) Promote responsible use of energy by incorporating necessary
policies; and (iv) Effective production planning using mix strategy electricity
generation.
