Abstract:
Hydrological events are becoming more extreme every day because of climate change.
This has triggered a large number of disasters in the past two decades, and the rate of
recurrence and intensity of these disasters are increasing, according to every study. Floods
are becoming more frequent in Pakistan, causing millions of dollars to damage the national
economy. Khanpur Dam sits at a critical geological location, and the concerned authorities
have not yet performed a dam break analysis. HEC RAS is one of the most used software
tools for studying floods, as it gives output in 2 dimensions. It performs hydrological
analysis in both the x and y axes, which results in a significantly better estimate as in reality
water is moving across both axes. Census data is used for vulnerability analysis, while HEC
RAS output evaluates the hazard values. Risk analysis maps have been prepared using GIS
software with Inverse-weight distribution as the hazard is more near waterways than the
areas at a greater distance. Vulnerability and hazard values of different towns do not
reciprocate as the most of the development is on higher ground which will be relatively
safe in a dam-break scenario.
