EFFECTS OF PARTICULATE MATTER POLLUTION ON LIFE EXPECTANCY AND HEALTH IN PAKISTAN

Abstract

Particulate Matter (PM 10 and PM 2.5 ) is one of the most hazardous criterion pollutant that directly effects the human health by entering in the blood and increasing its toxicity, leading to fatal diseases. Over the years an alarming hike in the concentrations of particulate matter has been observed in Pakistan making it the third most polluted country of South-Asia for 2021. This research was designed to estimate the impact of particulate matter pollution on life expectancy and health on people of Pakistan. A PM 2.5 / PM 10 ratio was calculated for Pakistan to replicate the Air Quality Life Index (AQLI) methodology to calculate the potential years of life expectancy gained with reference to existing PM 2.5 concentrations for Pakistan for the years 2020 and 2021. Life expectancy years were calculated on the basis of different monitoring methods (CAMS and BAMS) which were compared with the AQLI-Pakistan Fact Sheet 2021 and 2022. This comparison has helped us to identify the disparities in the existing datasets and the misrepresented data presented globally. Furthermore, long term health impact assessment for Lahore based on pre Covid (2019), Covid lock down (2020) and post Covid lockdown (2021) scenario to understand the impact of PM 2.5 concentrations on morbidity for different diseases such as ALRI, COPD, Lung Cancer, IHD and Stroke. The PM 2.5 to PM 10 ratio calculated for Pakistan was 0.65 µg/m 3 of PM 2.5 / 1 µg/m 3 of PM 10 . Based on this ratio, it was calculated that 0.98 years if life expectancy is reduced per 10 µg/m 3 of sustained exposure of PM 2.5 for the people of Pakistan. According to AQLI Pakistan Fact Sheet the average annual PM 2.5 concentration of Pakistan for 2019 was 42.5 µg/m³, CAMS was 71.6 µg/m³, based on these concentrations the years of life expectancy gained were 3.2 and 6 years (2x more than what AQLI calculated) respectively if the WHO AQG (10 µg/m³) was met. For 2020, AQLI Fact sheet stated the annual PM 2.5 concentration to be 44.5 µg/m³, CAMS was 27.6 µg/m³ and BAMS was 66.75 µg/m³, based on these concentrations the years of life expectancy gained were 3.9, 2.2 and 6 years respectively if the WHO AQG (5 µg/m³) 1 was met. Health impact and disease burden is positively correlated as all the diseases have shown a positive correlation with PM 2.5 concentrations, this shows that even a slight control of the PM concentrations can reduce disease burden and improve life expectancy over time.

Particulate Matter (PM 10 and PM 2.5 ) is one of the most hazardous criterion pollutant that directly effects the human health by entering in the blood and increasing its toxicity, leading to fatal diseases. Over the years an alarming hike in the concentrations of particulate matter has been observed in Pakistan making it the third most polluted country of South-Asia for 2021. This research was designed to estimate the impact of particulate matter pollution on life expectancy and health on people of Pakistan. A PM 2.5 / PM 10 ratio was calculated for Pakistan to replicate the Air Quality Life Index (AQLI) methodology to calculate the potential years of life expectancy gained with reference to existing PM 2.5 concentrations for Pakistan for the years 2020 and 2021. Life expectancy years were calculated on the basis of different monitoring methods (CAMS and BAMS) which were compared with the AQLI-Pakistan Fact Sheet 2021 and 2022. This comparison has helped us to identify the disparities in the existing datasets and the misrepresented data presented globally. Furthermore, long term health impact assessment for Lahore based on pre Covid (2019), Covid lock down (2020) and post Covid lockdown (2021) scenario to understand the impact of PM 2.5 concentrations on morbidity for different diseases such as ALRI, COPD, Lung Cancer, IHD and Stroke. The PM 2.5 to PM 10 ratio calculated for Pakistan was 0.65 µg/m 3 of PM 2.5 / 1 µg/m 3 of PM 10 . Based on this ratio, it was calculated that 0.98 years if life expectancy is reduced per 10 µg/m 3 of sustained exposure of PM 2.5 for the people of Pakistan. According to AQLI Pakistan Fact Sheet the average annual PM 2.5 concentration of Pakistan for 2019 was 42.5 µg/m³, CAMS was 71.6 µg/m³, based on these concentrations the years of life expectancy gained were 3.2 and 6 years (2x more than what AQLI calculated) respectively if the WHO AQG (10 µg/m³) was met. For 2020, AQLI Fact sheet stated the annual PM 2.5 concentration to be 44.5 µg/m³, CAMS was 27.6 µg/m³ and BAMS was 66.75 µg/m³, based on these concentrations the years of life expectancy gained were 3.9, 2.2 and 6 years respectively if the WHO AQG (5 µg/m³) 1 was met. Health impact and disease burden is positively correlated as all the diseases have shown a positive correlation with PM 2.5 concentrations, this shows that even a slight control of the PM concentrations can reduce disease burden and improve life expectancy over time.