Ensemble Projections on Climate Change using CMIP-6 Data over Baluchistan, Pakistan

Abstract

Climate change’s effect have sparked several problems that go beyond Pakistan’s bor der. Extreme occurrences could be more severe because of raising temperature, raising concerns, about their potential impacts. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of climate change on distinct climatic zones in the province Baluchistan, Pakistan. The study analyzed precipitation and temperature data from 12 meteoro logical sites using the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). A fusion of two statistical approaches was used to generate homogeneous climatic regions (HCR’s). In the be ginning, cluster analysis was used to classify climatic regions (CRs) by considering the distinctive characteristics of the station’s sites. Through this process, three distinct climatic areas were identified. The second phase comprised the use of heterogeneity and discordancy metrices, as well as the L-moment techniques to assure the consistency of the established HCRs. These HCRs were then evaluated using GCM’s specifically for the reference period of 1985 to 2014. We established these HCR’s to make predic tions about the climate using two alternative scenarios Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs 4.5 and 8.5) for the twenty-first century. Despite changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, the results from the HCR’s show that all the stations preserve their distinct regions in both future scenarios. The maximum and minimum temper atures are expected to rise significantly in the future, with a significant rise predicted in 2075-2100 for SSP 4.5 and 8.5. This research will provide vital support for both im mediate and long-term climate change policies, as well as projects linked to irrigation, water management, hydropower, and other relevant areas around the country.