Impact of Human Development Indicators and Economic Well-Being on Election Outcomes

Abstract

Are the incumbents who put more emphasis on public welfare spending likely to be re-elected? This study addresses this research question by using data of three general elections in Pakistan held in 2008, 2013 and 2018. The data of social indicators for Pakistan is obtained from summary statistics of Pakistan social standard living measurement for the periods 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2013 and 2015. The study hypothesizes that the ruling party can improve its chances of re-election by spending more on the welfare of people. In the case of Pakistan, the study finds a weak relationship between election outcome and human development indicators and economic development profile. Using multinomial logistic regression, the study finds that socio-economic indicators do not affect election results viz. the chances of re-election could not increase if a ruling political party spends on human development indicators and economic development. Succinctly, it highlights the role of other factors that play a role in determining the election outcome. The study concludes with a cautious note that if performance and service delivery is not the basis of success in election, then democracy cannot improve governance at any level of government.