Techno-economic feasibility and environmental assessment of large-scale wind farms for sustainable energy generation at provincial scale of Pakistan /

Abstract

Nature has blessed Pakistan with immense wind resource (wind corridors) in Sindh province, which has huge wind energy potential. Wind power is considered an economically viable and environmentally sustainable energy source in the long run, and it is one of Pakistan’s best alternatives (after hydropower) to address energy crisis. However, the source is not completely exploited due to the limited number of installed wind projects extracting a small fraction of the total estimated potential. This research is focused on estimating the wind energy potential and wind farms' economic feasibility. The performance of different wind turbine models is evaluated, and the wake effect optimization is carried out. The results showed that using the Gamesa (G114-2.0MW) turbines and wind farm’s optimal layout, i.e., 6D turbine spacing, 7D row spacing, and 3D rows offset, all sites (except Karachi) demonstrated excellent techno-economic feasibility with an average annual energy production (AEP) and capacity factor (CF) of 162.49 GWh and 35.67%, respectively. The proposed wind farms' average levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is determined to be 5.03 ¢/kWh (nominal) and 2.42 ¢/kWh (real), respectively, indicating that it is compatible with electricity price in Pakistan (6.0 ¢/kWh). The average simple payback period (SPP) and discounted payback period (DPP) are 6.4 years and 9.7 years, respectively, with an average net present value (NPV) of $84.14 Million, showing that wind projects are financially attractive. The internal rate of return (IRR) ranged between 22.88% and 38.01%, which is higher than the discount rate, confirming economic feasibility. Moreover, all the sites have a positive benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR). The average life cycle emissions (LCE) and annual CO2 emissions reduction are calculated to be 278,758 tCO2 and 79,505 tCO2/year, respectively. Lastly, the sensitivity analysis is performed. This research will encourage the Government and investors to invest in wind farm development to steer the country toward economic growth, increase renewables share, and support achieving UN-SDGs 7, 8, and 13.