Abstract:
Natural hazards can be of various types such as Earthquakes, Landslide, Avalanche, Flash
flooding and etc, but all in all these hazards bring long lasting destruction whenever and
where ever they occur. The northern regions of Pakistan particularly the Himalayan
mountain range are prone to these natural hazards. The main objective of this research is
to perform susceptibility analysis on three particular natural hazards in Ghizer District
namely: Landslides, Flash floods and snow avalanches and find suitable mitigation
measures for each natural hazard in said region. Data of the study area was collected
through satellite imagery, while the data of the triggering factors (factors responsible for
natural hazards) such as lithology, precipitation and drainage density was acquired through
manipulation of said satellite image and through the use of various GIS techniques. The
susceptibility analysis of the mentioned natural hazards was calculated through the use of
multi-criteria decision analysis techniques primarily Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP).
The AHP model to be used was operated through the extension AHP2.0 for Arc-Map. The
results indicated that the potential susceptibly zones were found near fault lines and high
slope zones, high drainage density and high precipitation zones, and near regions of greater
snow cover respectively for landslide, Flash-Flood and Snow Avalanche respectively. The
accuracy of prediction of the AHP model was determined through the use of the AUC and
ROC curve method where the AUC values for Landslide, Flash-Flood and Snow
Avalanche Susceptibility were 71%, 72% and 89% respectively. The accuracy of AHP
model can be improved through increasing the number of true positives/ historic data. The
study also suggested various mitigation factors for said natural hazards while considering
the economic conditions of the area.
