Site - Specific Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) for THAL DOAB Area

Abstract

Pakistan lies in important geotectonic position and has seismically active zones in north and south. Seismic hazard analysis (SHA) entails the estimation of potential ground motion parameters at a specific region/site. The evaluations through seismic hazard analysis consider all historical and instrumental recorded seismicity and the possible sources of seismic activity to generate ground motion parameters probability of exceedance. SHA is performed through two main approaches to define seismic ground motion for structural design purposes e.g., deterministic & probabilistic seismic hazard Analysis. Ground motion parameters such as Peak Ground Accelerations (PGA) etc. are determined with annual probability of exceedance in a time interval for a specific location. Site specific probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for THAL DOAB area located in Punjab Plain is performed due to absence and lack of reliable site specific seismic hazard study. There are great prospects for industrial developments under CPEC in the region. The main objectives of this research are to perform a comprehensive site specific probabilistic seismic hazard study considering the site, soil conditions, near regional and regional tectonic settings and by developing seismotectonic model and earthquake catalogue. Finally, site specific peak ground accelerations have been derived taking into account the site response analysis for design of structures.