Optimizing Sustainable Energy Solutions: A Comprehensive Analysis of Environmental Impacts in Pakistan's Agricultural Sector Using the TIMES Model /

Abstract

Energy security and environmental issues are the main concerns which are currently faced by Pakistan. The agriculture sector is highly dependent on fossil fuels and employs obsolete technologies for energy fulfilment, which produces GHG emissions. Generally, the agriculture sector’s energy demand is 50 PJ, major source of which is fossil fuels. Customized VEDA-TIMES, a linear programming optimization model is developed that focuses on existing technologies/machinery commissioned in agriculture sector to analyze direct energy demand, supplies and associated emissions for Pakistan by 2060. Through the integration of renewable energy sources, this study seeks to optimize the nation's agricultural energy system for reduced environmental impact and increased resilience. Starting in 2025, decentralized renewable alternatives are introduced through the solar inclusion and biodiesel inclusion scenarios, to meet global commitments. The model considers sustainable ways to reduce CO2 emissions while determining strategies to meet the sector's direct energy demands. The baseline for the study is business-as-usual scenario. The findings demonstrate how sustainability concerns are heightened by the emissions trajectory of business as usual. However, by giving solar PV adoption priority, the solar scenario reduces overall emissions by more than 16% until 2060. Additionally, biodiesel gradually lessens effects on environment while making use of agricultural waste, which otherwise be burnt and strongly contribute to overall GHG emissions. Evidence-based interventions such as renewable subsidies and conservation incentives are informed by optimized portfolios. Agriculture can move toward cleaner energy synergy, food security, rural livelihoods, energy fulfillment, and environmental stewardship with the right strategies. This multifaceted analysis serves as a comprehensive guide, offering actionable recommendations to propel Pakistan's agricultural sector towards a greener and more sustainable energy future.