Abstract:
The complex relationship between environmental changes and agricultural management practices
has become more important considering the growing challenges posed by climate change.
Thorough research is required to examine how climate change and current management techniques
affect cotton crop resilience and production. The objective of this research was to investigate the
decadal trends and impact of climatic variables on the cotton crop yield and to analyze the effect
of current Management practices on cotton crop yield. The climate change was analyzed through
Mann-Kendall trend test. The results highlighted that temperature was significantly (probability at
0.05) increasing in all three stages i.e. 304 – 319k, 309 – 314k and 305 – 311k respectively. The
Rainfall trend was significantly decreasing in sowing stage (0.002-0.0003 mm day-1
) and maturity picking stage (0.008-0.0007 mm day-1) whereas it was significantly increasing (0.001-0.01 mm
day-1
) in emergence-flowering stage. Soil moisture displayed an overall decrease i.e. 63 – 41 m3
m-3
. Survey results demonstrated that weather anomalies were affecting the cotton yield only
43.4%, pest infestations were 27%, seed quality (hybrid seeds) was 8.2%, Lack of awareness was
6.2%, High maintenance cost was 5.1%, poor soil quality was 4.3%, Sugarcane promotion was
4.1% and water scarcity was only 1.7%. All these factors were significant (Co-relation) and
contributed 46% of all factors in cotton yield. In 1990 the cotton cultivation was carried out on an
area of 337.9 hectares in Multan, this area reduced to 105.22 hectares in 2020. Per hectare yield
was also decreased from 4.88 bales (1.05 tons) per hectare in 1990 to 2.82 bales (0.61 tons) per
hectare in 2020. A decrease of 2.06 bales (0.44 tons) per hectare can be seen in these 30 years. The
temporal change in climatic variables and management practices affected the cotton crop and
played a vital role in this yield reduction. The findings will provide valuable insights for farmers
and policy makers to enhance crop yield and adapt to changing environmental conditions.
