Flood Warning, Forecasting and Emergency Response

Abstract

This book provides an introduction to recent developments in the area of flood warning, forecasting and emergency response. The topic spans a wide range of disciplines, including weather forecasting, meteorological, river and coastal detection systems, river and coastal flood forecasting models, flood warning dissemination systems, and emergency response procedures. The text deals mainly with general principles and concepts, but also includes references to a number of manuals, guidelines and papers which provide more detailed information on factors to consider in designing and implementing a flood warning system. Although informal flood warning systems have existed ever since people settled near to rivers and coastlines, improvements to communication and computer systems in recent years have opened up a range of possibilities in many aspects of the flood warning process. These include developments in remote sensing techniques, ensemble forecasting, automated flood warning systems and decision support systems. Some recent research and operational developments in these areas are discussed, although specific brands of equipment (software, instrumentation etc.) are not considered. The topics of performance monitoring, risk based design and prioritisation of investment are also considered in several chapters, with recent developments driven in part by rising public expectations, and by an increasing need for organisations to justify investments in new equipment and procedures. Early warning systems are often described in terms of the detection, warning dissemination, response, recovery and review stages. In many cases, a forecasting component will also be included, and preparedness is essential for an effective emergency response. This structure is also adopted here, although with only a short discussion of the recovery phase, since flood warning and forecasting has a less important role to play once flood levels start to recede, such as estimating when floodwaters will drain, or if any further flooding is imminent. By contrast, the warning aspect is discussed in several locations, including a chapter on the decision criteria used for issuing flood warnings (often called thresholds) and sections on decision support and decision-making under uncertainty. The book is presented in three main sections as follows: