Assessment of Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability of Terrestrial Water Storage over Indus River Basin using GRACE-Satellite

Abstract

Freshwater, a significant natural resource, is crucial for achieving sustainable development. However, escalating anthropogenic activities and the impact of climate change have imposed significant stress on freshwater resources. To address these challenges, it is essential to comprehend the spatial variation in water availability and sustainability. The main objective of the present study was to assess water sustainability in terms of terrestrial water storage in the Indus River basin, using three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions with a spatial resolution of 0.5◦ . Spatial variability of water sustainability was estimated by integrating reliability, resilience, and vulnerability. Additionally, the Modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test and Sens slope estimator were employed to identify significant trends in water availability. The findings indicated a notable decline in the basin's water supply, particularly after 2011. The trend analysis revealed a higher declination in water availability, ranging from −0.15 to −0.10 cm/year in the southern and southwestern region of the basin, and a slight increase toward the eastern side of the study area. However, the sustainability analysis indicated that water resources in the north and northeastern regions of the basin exhibited a higher sustainability than other areas. The least sustainable regions, with values ranging from 0.0 to 0.4, were identified in the south and southwest. The study successfully demonstrated the applicability of GRACE's TWS data for analyzing water resource sustainability across the Indus River basin and the proposed method presented an effective approach for assessing water resource availability and sustainability, providing valuable insights to guide freshwater resource management and promote sustainable development in the Indus River basin, and potentially other regions facing similar challenge.