ENHANCING DROUGHT MONITORING AND RISK EVALUATION SYSTEMS USING MULTI-INDICES, REMOTE SENSING, AND STOCHASTIC MODELLING: A CASE STUDY OF SOUTH PUNJAB, PAKISTAN

Abstract

Pakistan is facing serious climate change issues, particularly vulnerability to droughts and floods. Droughts are a recurring problem, and studying past droughts can help in identify high-risk areas. This study addresses deficiencies in current drought monitoring systems in South Punjab, Pakistan, and aims to improve it using a straightforward approach that combines meteorological data, multi-indices, remote sensing, and stochastic modelling. Meteorological parameters, particularly precipitation and temperature, were investigated for their role in drought occurrence.

Comprehensive drought indices (SPI, RDI, SPEI) were integrated with remote sensing- based indices (NDVI) for better monitoring. Using the DrinC and R programming,

drought indices were calculated, revealing an inverse relationship between rainfall and potential evapotranspiration, identifying drought events. Analysis of drought trends across different sites highlighted severity and variability. SPI and RDI indices showed high correlation (R=0.99), emphasizing their effectiveness. SPEI results also exhibited moderate positive correlation with the globally recognized SPEI database. To predict precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, ARIMA and ETS models were used, and the results were consistent with past trends in the meteorological drought risk maps. Results may help in proactive planning against potential drought events. A comprehensive drought risk classification map, integrating satellite and meteorological parameters, offered a holistic view of agricultural and meteorological drought risk areas in South Punjab. The study revealed that majority of South Punjab is at risk of drought either agricultural or meteorological. Spatial distribution of risk levels indicates the urgency for targeted interventions in areas facing extreme drought risk. Findings contribute valuable information for policymakers, meteorological departments, and relevant ministries to improve preparedness and mitigation strategies, ultimately strengthening the region's resilience to drought events.