Quantifying and Projecting the Streamflow Variations in Swat River

Abstract

The changing climate is seriously imposing threats to existence of mankind and other creatures. This study focuses River Swat basin in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, and aims to forecast its input source by considering changing climate conditions that affect water flow. The study area encompasses the Upper Swat Canal system, specifically the Swat River and its tributaries, characterized by complex topography and used for irrigation. The research addresses the limitations of previous studies by incorporating a broader range of data, including discharge, precipitation, and temperature trends for the past decade. Data collection involved field surveys, interviews, and online resources, and preprocessing techniques were applied to ensure data accuracy. A hydrological model was developed and calibrated to simulate the water cycle and discharge in the study area. The ARIMA model, specifically ARIMA (4,1,1) (0,1,0) [12], was found to be the most suitable for forecasting. The results indicated an increase in flood frequency and rising water levels in the Swat River. The study highlights the significance of accurate forecasting and flood management. The study focuses on use of different models and their intercomparison. Overall, this research contributes to enhancing the understanding of water flow dynamics in the study area and provides valuable insights for decision-making for public benefit.