CLIMATE RESPONSIVE FLOOD MODELLING

Abstract

Jhelum and Chenab rivers are one of the largest rivers of Pakistan. The Jhelum River originates in Kashmir, India, flowing through Srinagar and Wular Lake before entering Pakistan. It picks up tributaries like the Neelam and Kunhar rivers, then winds through the mountains and plains of Pakistani Punjab. The Chenab River is Formed by the Chandra and Bhaga rivers in the Himalayas (India), it flows through Jammu and Kashmir before entering Pakistan. The Chenab then collects the Jhelum River at Trimmu and continues southward until it merges with the Sutlej River to form the Panjnad River, which eventually joins the Indus River. The flow projections in these rivers were made by hydrological modeling in Arc Swat. Mangla and Maralla were taken as gauging stations for Jhelum and Chenab rivers respectively. The model was calibrated by comparing the projected values with the observed values. The comparison was satisfied with the help of different statistical parameters. The model provides us with the flow projections for the coming years which provide us an insight into the future flow behavior which is helpful for flood forecasting and water resource managment.