The Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production: An Empirical Analysis of Punjab, Pakistan

Abstract

Climate change presents a considerable risk to wheat production, particularly in agrarian-based developing nations such as Pakistan. This research delves into the intricate influence of climate change on wheat production within the province of Punjab, emphasizing zone-level variations to capture localized impacts. Employing data spanning from 1981 to 2021 for each district, the study employs the Arellano-Bond dynamic panel model to estimate the impact of climate change on wheat production. The empirical analysis uncovers notable effects of temperature, humidity, and soil properties, with precipitation and wind speed exhibiting varying influences. This study provides important insights into the impact of climate change on wheat production across four distinct zones of Punjab, supporting the case for implementing strategic climate adaptation measures in the region's agricultural sector.